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99 lines
3.4 KiB
Markdown
99 lines
3.4 KiB
Markdown
# Optimality Criteria
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Falling under wrapper methods, optimality criterion are often used to aid in model selection. These criteria provide a measure of fit for the data to a given hypothesis.
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## Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
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AIC is an estimator of <u>relative</u> quality of statistical models for a given set of data. Given a collection of models for the data, AIC estimates the quality of each model relative to each other.
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This way, AIC provides a means for model selection. AIC offers an estimate of the relative information lost when a given model is used.
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This metric does not say anything about the absolute quality of a model but only serves for comparison between models. Therefore, if all the candidate models fit poorly to the data, AIC will not provide any warnings.
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It is desired to pick the model with the lowest AIC.
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AIC is formally defined as
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$$
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AIC = 2k - 2\ln{(\hat{L})}
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$$
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## Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)
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This metric is based on the likelihood function and is closely related to the Akaike information criterion. It is desired to pick the model with the lowest BIC.
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BIC is formally defined as
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$$
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BIC = \ln{(n)}k - 2\ln{(\hat{L})}
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$$
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Where $\hat{L}$ is the maximized value of the likelihood function for the model $M$.
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$$
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\hat{L} = p(x | \hat{\theta}, M)
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$$
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$x$ is the observed data, $n$ is the number of observations, and $k$ is the number of parameters estimated.
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### Properties of BIC
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- It is independent from the prior
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- It penalizes the complexity of the model in terms of the number of parameters
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### Limitations of BIC
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- Approximations are only valid for sample sizes much greater than the number of parameters (dense data)
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- Cannot handle collections of models in high dimension
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### Differences from AIC
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AIC is mostly used when comparing models. BIC asks the question of whether or not the model resembles reality. Even though they have similar functions, they are separate goals.
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## Mallow's $C_p$
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$C_p$ is used to assess the fit of a regression model that has been estimated using ordinary least squares. A small value of $C_p$ indicates that the model is relatively precise.
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The $C_p$ of a model is defined as
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$$
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C_p = \frac{\sum_{i =1}^N{(Y_i - Y_{pi})^2}}{S^2}- N + 2P
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$$
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- $Y_pi$ is the predicted value of the $i$th observation of $Y$ from the $P$ regressors
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- $S^2$ is the residual mean square after regression on the complete set of regressors and can be estimated by mean square error $MSE$,
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- $N$ is the sample size.
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An alternative definition is
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$$
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C_p = \frac{1}{n}(RSS + 2d\hat{\sigma}^2)
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$$
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- $RSS$ is the residual sum of squares
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- $d$ is the number of predictors
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- $\hat{\sigma}^2$ refers to an estimate of the variances associated with each response in the linear model
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## Deviance Information Criterion
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The DIC is a hierarchical modeling generalization of the AIC and BIC. it is useful in Bayesian model selection problems where posterior distributions of the model was <u>obtained by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation</u>.
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This method is only valid if the posterior distribution is approximately multivariate normal.
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Let us define the deviance as
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$$
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D(\theta) = -2\log{(p(y|\theta))} + C
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$$
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Where $y$ is the data and $\theta$ are the unknown parameters of the model.
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Let us define a helper variable $p_D$ as the following
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$$
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p_D = \frac{1}{2}\hat{Var}(D(\theta))
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$$
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Finally the deviance information criterion can be calculated as
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$$
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DIC = D(\bar{\theta}) + 2p_D
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$$
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Where $\bar{theta}$ is the expectation of $\theta$.
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